Trump’s Dinner Boosted TRUMP Popularity, Is There Still An Opportunity for Operation in the Future Market?
[TL；DR]:
On April 23, the official website of the TRUMP meme coin announced that the top 220 users with the highest average TRUMP holdings will be invited to participate in the “TRUMP DINNER”. This positive news caused the TRUMP token to surge by more than 80% in a short period of time.
According to Nansen and Chainalysis data, in the seven days ending April 25, TRUMP tokens had a net outflow of $869 million, while inflows were only $96 million, indicating that a large number of holders chose to sell at high levels.
The future of the TRUMP token depends on Trump’s continued influence, the project team’s execution, and the market’s return to rationality.
Introduction
After a three-month decline, the TRUMP token has been hyped by the market again due to the “TRUMP DINNER,” and the price of the coin has risen from $8 to a maximum of around $16. This article provides a detailed interpretation of the Trump dinner event that led to a surge in TRUMP and reveals the logic behind the market fluctuations.
Trump’s Dinner Drives TRUMP to Stop Falling and Rise Sharply
Since the TRUMP token hit an all-time high on January 19 this year, it has been in a three-month long decline. In particular, on April 18, TRUMP welcomed 4% of the token unlocking, which became the dominant clue for the market to continue selling and suppress the coin price.
However, just two days later, news began to spread in the community that Trump planned to hold a dinner for TRUMP token holders. On April 23, the official website of the TRUMP meme coin confirmed the news, and its announcement stated that the top 220 users with the highest average holdings would be invited to the dinner.
Source: TRUMP MEME
As soon as the news came out, the price of TRUMP tokens soared, with the market cap surging by more than $100 million and the largest single-day increase exceeding 80%. However, it is worth mentioning that after the official announcement that the top four holders attending the TRUMP dinner would receive a limited edition Trump Tourbillon watch, the coin failed to maintain its upward trend and fell slightly.
Source: Gate.io
In addition, TRUMP Meme officials have stated twice that tokens will not be unlocked during the dinner ranking event, and the initial batch and subsequent 3-month unlocking will be extended by 90 days.
The reduction in short-term selling pressure in the market and the potential empowerment of tokens have triggered more than $2.4 billion in on-chain token transfers, setting the highest daily trading volume on CEX since mid-February, and driving other Trump family-related tokens such as MELANIA, fully demonstrating Trump’s power to shout orders in the crypto market.
However, this dinner for coin holders has also attracted a lot of criticism. Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff, Adam Schiff, and Elizabeth Warren publicly criticized Trump for using his presidency for personal gain, saying that this move may violate federal ethics rules and called on the US Government Ethics Office to investigate. However, in a government environment controlled by the Republicans, these voices may find it difficult to have a substantial impact. Nevertheless, the shadow of controversy has undoubtedly cast a layer of uncertainty over the future of the TRUMP token.
On-chain Data Reveals the Movements of Whales Before and After the Trump Dinner
Although the dinner event has driven TRUMP to rise for several days, there are still many whales who are taking advantage of the high prices to sell. According to on-chain data, in the seven days ending on April 25, the net outflow of TRUMP tokens was as high as $869 million, while the inflow was only $96 million, indicating that a large number of holders chose to sell at high prices.
In fact, the top 10 addresses holding TRUMP coins control 82% of the circulating supply, and the project team holds 80% of the total supply. Although it is currently locked, the selling pressure to unlock it in the future is still high. According to the white paper, TRUMP tokens have started a long-term distribution phase since April 18 this year, which is expected to last until mid-2028. The next batch of unlocking will be in July this year. If the first phase is delayed by 90 days, the double selling pressure in July will undoubtedly be very heavy. Readers who are not unfamiliar with token economics may also know that similar highly concentrated tokens often face the risk of “team selling”, and investors need to be particularly vigilant.
Source: Gate.io
In addition, we see that the first holder of coins is an anonymous address named “Sun” holding 1.1768 million tokens (worth about $16 million), and his identity has aroused speculation - is Tron founder Justin Sun lurking among them? More whales choose to withdraw coins from exchanges or build positions on the chain after the news ferments. Only two holders use early addresses, suggesting that there are many temporary speculators among the participants of this “dinner game.”
Source: TRUMP MEME
Behind this price frenzy, the operations of the whales are even more intriguing. According to on-chain tracking, a certain address made early arrangements through the weight mechanism of “amount of coins held × holding time”, increased its holdings before the announcement of the dinner, and then sold them in batches when the coin price soared, with a single profit of $2.3 million. Other big investors are stuck in a quagmire: an investor who bought 1.11 million tokens at an average price of $41 in January, despite continuing to increase his position, still suffered a floating loss of $33.66 million due to the price plunge, with a loss rate of 73%. This situation of ice and fire just shows that in a market dominated by traffic and narrative, information gaps and capital advantages often crush the judgment of ordinary investors.
Source: @cryptothedoggy
In short, the surge and plunge of the TRUMP token reflects the structural contradictions of the entire MEME coin track. On the one hand, its 24-hour trading volume ranks among the top 50 crypto assets, proving the market’s enthusiasm for the “attention economy”; on the other hand, its price trend is highly tied to Trump’s political life. When the Senate investigation was launched, the token price fell by 17%. This huge uncertainty makes MEME a preferred target for high-leverage short-term traders.
Technical Analysis Fails, TRUMP Celebrity Coin Fluctuates Violently Due to Information
In my opinion, the volatility of celebrity coins such as TRUMP tokens is largely due to market hype and celebrity effect. Trump’s celebrity effect as the president of the United States is widely used by the market. Of course, this kind of attention often lacks a rational basis and is prone to cause drastic price fluctuations.
From a broader perspective, the TRUMP token is just a microcosm of celebrity coins in the crypto market. This type of token uses celebrity endorsements as a selling point, which can quickly attract funds in the short term, but the long-term value is often difficult to maintain. JENNER and MOTHER, which were popular last year, are both in this category. Trump’s dinner provides us with an excellent case to observe the rise and fall of celebrity coins, and also allows us to peek into their future in the crypto market.
Source: coingecko
In fact, Trump’s transformation in the crypto space is remarkable. Four years ago, he denounced Bitcoin as a “scam”; now, he has become a staunch supporter of the industry. During the 2024 campaign, he promised to make the United States a “crypto capital” and fulfilled his promise through a number of policies during his second term in 2025. Executive Order No. 14178 on January 23 aims to enhance the competitiveness of the United States in the field of digital finance; the order on March 6 established a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a list of digital assets. These policies have injected confidence into the crypto market and provided macro benefits for the TRUMP token.
The Trump family’s business layout is also eye-catching. The World Liberty Financial (WLF) platform covers trading, custody and lending services, while the newly launched stablecoin USD1 may add ecosystem value to the TRUMP token. However, these activities have also sparked ethical controversy. As the current president, does Trump’s business behavior constitute a conflict of interest? Is he using his public office for personal gain? These questions will make investors doubt the legitimacy and sustainability of the TRUMP token.
Source: TRUMP MEME
From this point of view, the life cycle of celebrity coins often follows a pattern: in the early stage, celebrity endorsements attract funds and prices soar; then due to market saturation or decreased attention, prices fall back. TRUMP tokens are currently in the rebound repair stage, but historical experience shows that technical analysis will fail in the face of many positive and negative news, but the long-term prospects of such tokens are still affected by the overall atmosphere of the crypto market and the utility of the tokens themselves. An example I often use is that during the 2021 crypto bull market, Dogecoin soared several times due to Musk’s tweets, but ultimately failed to escape the fate of speculative assets going down as the market turns overall. TRUMP tokens may face a similar trajectory, especially when the market weight of whale selling, team unlocking, and ethical controversies prevails.
In short, the rise of celebrity coins reflects the unique culture of the crypto market: speculation and innovation coexist, opportunities and risks coexist. The future of TRUMP tokens depends on Trump’s continued influence, the execution of the project team, and the rational return of the market. Investors need to stay sober, weigh short-term gains and long-term risks, and avoid blindly chasing the craze.
