Background introduction of 2025 Bitcoin price forecast

Image:https://www.gate.io/trade/BTC_USDT

In April 2025, Bitcoin completed its 4th halving, reducing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, resulting in a sudden 50% decrease in the supply side. Against this backdrop, the market holds high expectations for the Bitcoin price forecast in the second half of 2025. The classic halving bull market theory suggests a significant price surge 6-12 months after the halving, but one should also be cautious of short-term profit-taking fluctuations.

Supply and demand factors: halving effect and miner behavior

• Supply contraction: After the halving, the daily average of new Bitcoin supply decreased from 900 BTC to 450 BTC, reducing by about 160,000 coins per year.
• Miner cost pressure: As electricity costs and mining difficulty rise in sync, some small mining farms may be forced to shut down, further exacerbating market supply shortages.
• Long-term holders increase: On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC continues to rise after halving, reflecting overall social confidence.

Institutional capital and market sentiment driven

• Spot and futures ETFs: In the first half of 2025, several new types of Bitcoin ETFs were approved and traded simultaneously in the US and European markets, significantly increasing institutional participation.
• Enterprise financial report configuration: Some technology and payment companies announced the increase in Bitcoin holdings in their financial reports, using Bitcoin as a hedging tool on the company’s balance sheet, sending a strong signal.
• Social media heat: Twitter, Reddit and other community discussions have greatly increased, and retail investor sentiment is gradually warming, helping to sustain the upward momentum in prices.

Macroeconomic and regulatory environment impact

• Global Inflation and Monetary Policy: Following the decline in inflation data in major economies, central banks may gradually shift towards a neutral or loose stance, the US Dollar Index is under pressure, benefiting USD-denominated assets Bitcoin price forecast 2025.
• Tightening of digital asset regulation: EU MiCA officially takes effect, US SEC raises higher requirements for compliant custody of cryptocurrencies, but remains neutral towards Bitcoin itself. Transparent and predictable regulatory framework helps boost institutional confidence.

On-chain data reveals potential turning points

1. Exchange Reserve Trend: CoinMetrics data shows that the BTC reserves of exchanges have been continuously decreasing, with a net outflow of over 30,000 coins in the past three months.
2. Active addresses and transfer volume: the daily average number of active addresses remains above 1 million, and the total on-chain transfer volume hits a new high for the year, indicating an increase in network usage activity.
3. Derivative market premium: the Bitcoin contract basis has turned from negative to positive, with a 3-month basis rate reaching +4%, indicating strong bullish sentiment.

How novice investors should deal with

• Staggered Positioning: It is recommended to invest in the range of $80,000–$100,000 in three installments to reduce cost pressure.
• Dynamic take profit and stop loss: the first take profit can be set at $120,000, with the second target at $150,000; the initial stop loss is controlled within a range of 10%, adjusted according to market fluctuations.
• Pay attention to key event calendars: be aware of the June Fed interest rate decision, September US CPI release, and major blockchain conferences, which will help grasp short-term market fluctuations.
• Choose the right exchange: for example, trade on established and secure exchanges like Gate.

Conclusion: Reasonable expectations and a long-term perspective

Bitcoin price forecast 2025 is not absolutely accurate, and should be based on long-term trends, combined with diversified investment and risk management strategies. For beginners, understanding the halving mechanism, institutional participation, and the linkage of the macro environment is the core of formulating an investment plan. In the future, Bitcoin is expected to continue to play a role in the positioning of digital gold, but still needs to be vigilant against short-term fluctuations.