1. Introduction to Ethereum

Ethereum was first proposed in 2014 by programmer Vitalik Buterin and officially launched on June 30, 2015. It is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. Smart contracts can be understood as automatically executed computer programs, allowing users to transfer assets, lend, play games, or perform other applications on Ethereum without the need for traditional banks or exchange intermediaries. Ether (ETH) is the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network. As of March 2024, Ether ranks second in the cryptocurrency market by market cap, behind only Bitcoin, with a market value of hundreds of billions of dollars.
In addition, Ethereum is one of the most widely used blockchains in the world: as of June 2024, the mainnet has about 378,000 daily active users, nearly nine times that of early 2020. These figures show that the size and activity of the Ethereum ecosystem are growing rapidly. With subsequent technical upgrades—such as the “Merge” on September 15, 2022, which transitioned the consensus mechanism from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake—Ethereum’s energy efficiency has greatly improved, and it is expected to attract more users and institutions.

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2. Historical Review of Ethereum Prices

Ethereum’s price has undergone several significant bull and bear cycles since its genesis in 2015, which can be roughly divided into the following stages:

2.1 Early Stage (2015–2016)

Ethereum’s price was extremely low in the early stages. At the beginning of 2015, 1 ETH was worth less than $1. As the community grew and miners participated more actively, the price gradually rose. In mid-2016, the famous “The DAO” incident occurred (a decentralized autonomous organization was hacked), leading the blockchain community to decide on a hard fork, creating a new Ethereum chain (the original chain became Ethereum Classic). This event temporarily shook investor confidence, but after technical fixes, Ethereum’s ecosystem continued to develop.

2.2 Bull Market and Pullback (2017–2019)

As shown in the chart above, Ethereum entered its first major bull run in 2017. In early 2017, ETH was only a few dollars. With the global crypto boom, the price surged. By mid-2017, ETH had exceeded $300. Toward the end of the year, bullish sentiment accelerated the price: in December 2017, it soared above $800, surpassed $1,000 within just over a week, and quickly shot up to around $1,300. This staggering rise reflected market enthusiasm for blockchain applications, particularly the ICO boom. However, in the second half of 2018, the crypto market entered a downturn, and Ethereum’s price sharply corrected. From its early 2018 high, the price dropped below $400 in under three months. It briefly rebounded above $800 but continued declining in the latter half of the year, ending at around $133.
In total, ETH lost about 82% of its value in 2018. This phase shows the adjustment risks after a bull run and reflects various factors like tighter liquidity and cooling project enthusiasm. In 2019, Ethereum’s price stabilized. It peaked at around $338 in late June but gradually fell back, ending the year close to its starting level. During this period, the market mainly digested the previous gains in a sideways trend.

2.3 Steady Recovery and New Highs (2020–2021)

2020 was a strong year for the overall cryptocurrency market. ETH started the year at around $130, but due to the global panic triggered by COVID-19 in March, both stock and crypto markets plunged. Later, central banks worldwide slashed interest rates and launched quantitative easing. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates to near zero and injected massive liquidity, boosting asset prices. Under these circumstances, ETH rebounded and continued rising. By the end of 2020, it had reached about $737. In early 2021, the bull market accelerated. Within the first few days of the year, ETH broke past $1,000. By early April, it had doubled to around $2,000. In May, market frenzy pushed ETH past $3,000 and, on May 11, it surpassed $4,000 for the first time. After a brief summer correction, the rally resumed. In November 2021, Ethereum hit its all-time high of approximately $4,891.7. Overall, from 2020 to 2021, ETH saw massive cumulative gains, driven by the rise of DeFi, NFTs, and other applications, as well as the broader crypto bull cycle.

2.4 Volatile Adjustment and The Merge (2022–Present)

In 2022, global macroeconomic tightening (rising inflation, U.S. Fed rate hike expectations, etc.) led to a broader crypto market correction. ETH also fell from its 2021 high. On September 15, 2022, Ethereum completed the long-awaited “Merge,” switching its consensus from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS). In theory, this major upgrade reduced new ETH issuance and improved energy efficiency. However, ETH’s price did not spike on the day of the upgrade. From late 2022 to 2024, Ethereum’s price mostly fluctuated between $1,000 and $2,000. As of April 28, 2025, according to Binance data, ETH is priced around $1,811. Overall, Ethereum’s current price level remains far below its historical high.

3. Main Factors Influencing Price Fluctuations

The rise and fall of Ethereum’s price are influenced by various factors, mainly including the following:

• Supply Mechanism: Ethereum does not have a hard cap on total supply, but its issuance rules can adjust inflation. The EIP-1559 proposal implemented in August 2021 introduced a “base fee burning” mechanism, meaning a portion of ETH in each transaction is permanently destroyed. After the Merge upgrade, Ethereum’s annual inflation rate further declined and is currently in a potential deflationary state (annual burn rate accounts for 0.5% to 2% of the supply). In the long term, continuous deflationary effects help support price increases.

• Market Demand and Use Cases: Demand for the Ethereum network directly drives demand for ETH. Currently, Ethereum remains the dominant platform in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space, with its total value locked (TVL) accounting for more than 60% of global DeFi protocols. A large amount of lending, decentralized trading, and other financial services run on the Ethereum chain, increasing the demand for ETH as collateral and gas fees. Additionally, the rise of NFTs (non-fungible tokens) and metaverse applications can also generate extra demand. Some expect that a rebound in the NFT market and the real-world adoption of metaverse applications will once again push ETH demand.

• Macroeconomics and Market Sentiment: Global financial markets and traditional economic policies have significant impacts on crypto assets. Since 2020, central banks around the world have implemented loose monetary policies (e.g., the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to historic lows), releasing large amounts of liquidity, which boosted the prices of risk assets including Ethereum. Furthermore, cyclical events of Bitcoin (such as halving) often trigger market-wide bull runs. As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum often follows this upward trend. Conversely, when global economic uncertainty rises or the Fed hikes interest rates, risk appetite declines, and the crypto market (including ETH) tends to face selling pressure.

• Technical Upgrades and Ecosystem Competition: Ethereum’s technological advancements are also long-term drivers of its price. Beyond the completed Merge upgrade, future sharding technology is planned for implementation between 2024–2025, significantly improving network throughput and reducing transaction fees. Additionally, new proposals such as EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) will lower the cost of Layer 2 scaling. A strong tech ecosystem enhances Ethereum’s competitiveness against other smart contract platforms (like Solana, Avalanche, etc.). Moreover, Ethereum’s synergy with its Layer 2 networks (such as Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, etc.) has prospered, which in turn increases ETH usage and demand.

• Regulatory Environment and Institutional Trends: Regulatory policy has a profound impact on the crypto market. For example, in July 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved spot Ethereum ETF applications submitted by multiple institutions. In the future, if Ethereum is widely accepted as a mainstream investment tool (e.g., through ETF listings or pension fund allocations), capital demand will significantly increase. Conversely, if regulators categorize ETH as a security or tighten crypto trading (e.g., delisting from exchanges, high compliance costs, etc.), it could put downward pressure on prices.

In summary, Ethereum’s price is influenced by a combination of supply and demand factors as well as macroeconomic and policy elements. As the market environment shifts, these factors may interact and trigger price volatility.

4. Impact of Key Events on Price

In addition to the above regular factors, several key events have had significant impacts on Ethereum’s price. Below are some typical examples:

• Ethereum 2.0 Merge Upgrade:
  On September 15, 2022, Ethereum successfully completed the “Merge” upgrade, switching its consensus mechanism from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). Theoretically, this upgrade slowed the issuance rate of ETH and reduced network energy consumption by 99%. Some in the market speculated the upgrade would sharply boost the price, but in reality, market sentiment played a larger role around the time of the event. However, in the long term, the deflationary mechanism and environmental friendliness brought by the Merge are believed to enhance ETH’s investment appeal.

• DeFi and NFT Booms:
  Between 2020 and 2021, the Ethereum ecosystem saw explosive growth. Decentralized lending, trading protocols, and various on-chain financial products emerged rapidly. Gas fees on Ethereum soared to historical highs, indicating a surge in network usage. During this period, total DeFi value locked surged, and Ethereum’s price climbed accordingly. Similarly, the NFT boom in 2021 (e.g., CryptoPunks, digital art, etc.) further increased on-chain activity and public attention, positively driving ETH demand.

• Crypto Market Cycles:
  Ethereum’s price typically moves in sync with Bitcoin and other crypto assets during bull and bear market cycles. For example, Bitcoin halving events (such as in May 2024) often initiate a new bull market, during which liquidity across the crypto market increases, usually driving ETH up as well. Additionally, during periods of significant volatility in traditional financial markets, the risk-asset nature of crypto often causes ETH to experience rapid surges or declines due to sentiment shifts.

• Macro and Other Sudden Events:
  Certain external events can also impact ETH prices. For instance, the collapse of U.S. crypto exchange FTX in November 2022 triggered market panic, causing most crypto assets including Ethereum to plunge. Similarly, economic data releases or political events can indirectly affect the crypto market. Overall, any major event that affects overall risk appetite can influence ETH prices via capital flows.

5. Current Price Overview

As of the end of April 2025, Ethereum’s market performance has been relatively stable. According to Gate.io data, on April 28th, the price of ETH was around $1811.34, with a market capitalization of about $218.7 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of around $11.8 billion. This price level is close to its $2000 mark, but still significantly lower than the historical high of nearly $4900 in 2021. Currently, the circulating supply of ETH is approximately 120.73 million, ranking second in market capitalization only behind Bitcoin. In the past month, the price of Ethereum has experienced slight fluctuations: a 7-day increase of nearly 10%, but still relatively high compared to the low point around mid last year. Overall, the current Ethereum price is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, indicating a relatively sideways trend.

6. Outlook for Future Price Trends

There are mixed opinions among the market and analysts about the future price trends. Currently, there are various forecasts and analyses.

• Optimists predict: Some institutions expect Ethereum to have huge long-term value potential. For example, the well-known investment firm Ark Invest (led by Cathie Wood) believes that if Ethereum continues to dominate Web3 infrastructure, its price could reach over $20,000 in the future. A survey by the expert team at Finder consulting firm predicts on average that the price of ETH will exceed around $5824 by 2025. These views assume successful continuous technological upgrades, significantly increased adoption rates, and a relaxed macroeconomic environment.
• Neutral prediction: Some analysts have provided relatively mild estimates. For example, CoinPriceForecast based on technical analysis believes that the average annual price of ETH in 2025 may be around $6500. According to a comprehensive analysis report by the Binance Research Team, a reasonable expectation for the price of Ethereum in 2025 is roughly between $6000 and $15000. This report points out that key price variables include technological upgrade progress and macroeconomic environment, etc.
• Prudent view: On the other hand, many analysts are cautious about the recent trend. The market analysis of Cointelegraph Chinese in March 2025 pointed out that Ethereum is currently in a sustained downtrend against the Bitcoin trading pair, with no clear bottom signal. The report also mentioned that as of March, the inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETF has decreased by 9.8%, and on-chain activity (such as gas fees) has also significantly decreased, implying that the price may continue to be under pressure in the short term.

Overall, the future price of Ethereum may fluctuate under the interaction of various factors. In the long term, positive factors such as technical aspects like sharding, Layer2 expansion, and ecosystem development may support the price, while macroeconomic tightening, regulatory uncertainty, or intensified competition may bring downward pressure. Currently, there is a large gap in various predictions, with some scenarios expecting a substantial increase in price under a bullish sentiment, while new lows may occur when market sentiment turns conservative or bearish. For ordinary investors, it is important to closely monitor Ethereum’s development (such as GitHub activities, the implementation of key EIPs), on-chain data (such as gas fees, staking rates), and macro policy changes to assess potential price movements.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s price history demonstrates extremely high volatility and cyclicality. Since its 2015 launch, it surged from just a few cents to nearly $5000 before falling back to around $2000—a dramatic rise and fall. Behind these prices lies the growth of Ethereum’s technical ecosystem and shifts in the external environment: the spread of decentralized applications, market risk sentiment, regulatory developments, and global macroeconomic trends all influence its valuation expectations. In the future, with ongoing technical upgrades (such as sharding and scalability improvements) and broader adoption, Ethereum’s long-term potential is widely regarded as positive; but one must also be vigilant about market volatility and risk. Therefore, when investing in or following Ethereum, one should remain cautious, rely on authoritative data for decisions, and implement proper risk management. Overall, Ethereum’s price reflects both its technological and ecosystem development and the emotional nature of trading—readers should conduct comprehensive analysis and adopt a rational attitude.