#五月行情预测# The non-farm employment data for April released yesterday showed a solid overall performance, bringing a slight Favourable Information to the market. The data indicated that 175,000 new jobs were added in April, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with no signs of deterioration. Considering the recently released GDP data, the U.S. economy has not fallen into a substantial recession. It is worth following that Bitcoin has quietly approached the $100,000 mark, and market activity has clearly rebounded.
However, a phenomenon that deserves attention is that while Bitcoin continues to strengthen, the upward momentum of other tokens has generally stalled, and some have even shown a downward trend. This reflects that current market liquidity is concentrating towards Bitcoin. If Bitcoin truly breaks through the 100,000 mark, it may further drain market liquidity, making the situation for other tokens even more difficult. The driving force behind this round of price increase, although there are multiple favourable information factors at play, is primarily institutional funds. Without institutional leadership, it would be difficult for Bitcoin to make such a strong comeback in such a short time. This kind of price surge itself has distorted characteristics—rather than being a natural rise driven by favourable information, it can be seen as market makers taking advantage of the situation to squeeze short positions. While such market conditions can temporarily boost the market, their sustainability is questionable and may ultimately evolve into a cycle of 'squeezing out shorts before squeezing out longs.' Objectively speaking, the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 again does exist, but from the perspective of market health, a rapid breakthrough would instead exacerbate the difficulties faced by altcoins. Another key signal is that despite the price increase, the trading volume has not shown significant expansion, indicating that the main funds are still taking a wait-and-see attitude. The market is focusing on several key events in May: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on May 7, and the upcoming Ethereum Pectra upgrade, both of which could become turning points for the short-term market. Currently, the market strength is limited, especially as Ethereum and other small coins continue to stagnate, making it difficult for market FOMO sentiment to be released, and the overall trend remains in a consolidation pattern. Judging from the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it is currently at a key technical level. Historical data shows that there is usually a rebound after a fall to current levels, and while it may not necessarily form a trend reversal, it may replicate the trend of 2019 - first out of a wave of rebound and then back to confirm. Bitcoin's rising market share does suck up a lot of money, but this trend cannot continue indefinitely. Once the peak is reached, small currencies will have a chance to perform. In terms of timing, May is the key turning window, and the current market focus has turned to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on Thursday. Although the market widely expects a rate cut in May, Chairman Powell's post-meeting remarks will be a key variable affecting subsequent market sentiment.
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Ybaser
· 5h ago
Thank you very much for your valuable information. Regards
#五月行情预测# The non-farm employment data for April released yesterday showed a solid overall performance, bringing a slight Favourable Information to the market. The data indicated that 175,000 new jobs were added in April, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with no signs of deterioration. Considering the recently released GDP data, the U.S. economy has not fallen into a substantial recession. It is worth following that Bitcoin has quietly approached the $100,000 mark, and market activity has clearly rebounded.
However, a phenomenon that deserves attention is that while Bitcoin continues to strengthen, the upward momentum of other tokens has generally stalled, and some have even shown a downward trend. This reflects that current market liquidity is concentrating towards Bitcoin. If Bitcoin truly breaks through the 100,000 mark, it may further drain market liquidity, making the situation for other tokens even more difficult.
The driving force behind this round of price increase, although there are multiple favourable information factors at play, is primarily institutional funds. Without institutional leadership, it would be difficult for Bitcoin to make such a strong comeback in such a short time. This kind of price surge itself has distorted characteristics—rather than being a natural rise driven by favourable information, it can be seen as market makers taking advantage of the situation to squeeze short positions. While such market conditions can temporarily boost the market, their sustainability is questionable and may ultimately evolve into a cycle of 'squeezing out shorts before squeezing out longs.'
Objectively speaking, the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 again does exist, but from the perspective of market health, a rapid breakthrough would instead exacerbate the difficulties faced by altcoins. Another key signal is that despite the price increase, the trading volume has not shown significant expansion, indicating that the main funds are still taking a wait-and-see attitude.
The market is focusing on several key events in May: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on May 7, and the upcoming Ethereum Pectra upgrade, both of which could become turning points for the short-term market. Currently, the market strength is limited, especially as Ethereum and other small coins continue to stagnate, making it difficult for market FOMO sentiment to be released, and the overall trend remains in a consolidation pattern.
Judging from the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it is currently at a key technical level. Historical data shows that there is usually a rebound after a fall to current levels, and while it may not necessarily form a trend reversal, it may replicate the trend of 2019 - first out of a wave of rebound and then back to confirm. Bitcoin's rising market share does suck up a lot of money, but this trend cannot continue indefinitely. Once the peak is reached, small currencies will have a chance to perform. In terms of timing, May is the key turning window, and the current market focus has turned to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on Thursday. Although the market widely expects a rate cut in May, Chairman Powell's post-meeting remarks will be a key variable affecting subsequent market sentiment.