United Nations Report: Global Economic Outlook Deteriorating, Facing High Uncertainty

The United Nations released the "2025 Mid-year Update on the Global Economic Situation and Prospects". The report notes that the global economic outlook has deteriorated significantly since the January 2025 forecast. Tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainty are putting pressure on supply chains, pushing up production costs and slowing corporate investment, affecting both developed and developing economies. The report predicts that global economic growth will slow to 2.4% in 2025, a significant decline from the 2.9% growth rate in 2024. Developing countries that are more dependent on trade face multiple challenges, including reduced exports, falling commodity prices, tighter financing conditions and increasing debt burdens. Sluggish global growth is also further hampering the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, exacerbating poverty and inequality, and limiting investment in the green transition. In terms of international trade, global trade growth will plummet from 3.3% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025. After a short-term push to circumvent tariffs, merchandise trade is likely to contract in the second half of 2025. Although trade in services remains resilient due to digitalization, the overall trade weakness will affect the demand for related services such as transportation and tourism.