The traditional four-year cycle theory in the cryptocurrency market has significantly failed by 2025, and the market has entered a new normal of multiple cycles running in parallel.

The core change lies in: the impact of the Bitcoin halving mechanism on prices continues to weaken, institutional funds continue to flow in through ETFs (such as the US spot BTC ETF with a scale exceeding 40 billion USD), pushing BTC into a slow bull market over ten years, with the cryptocurrency market and US stocks becoming increasingly interconnected, and annualized returns and volatility approaching those of tech stocks.
At the same time, MEME coins, technological narratives (such as AI Infra), and small hot spots operate independently in cycles, with the former displaying professional-level gaming characteristics and the latter following a rapid rotation logic of 1-3 months.
In terms of market structure, the liquidity of altcoins is diluted by millions of new coins (major exchanges are issuing new coins every day). The mainstream narrative relies more on institutional allocation rather than retail FOMO. The driving factors of the cycle have shifted from a singular halving event to multiple variables such as policies, technological innovations, and macro liquidity.
Therefore, we must abandon the "lying flat to win" mentality; empiricism is no longer applicable. For example, this round of bull market did not see a true season of all coins flying together. We need to develop strategies tailored to the characteristics of different cycles: long-term holding of BTC, MEME swing trading, technological leap layouts, and quick in-and-out on hot topics, in order to capture opportunities in the new ecology of de-retailization. #加密IPO热潮# #Gate ETH 挖矿年化收益 5%# #晒出我的Alpha积分#