When predicting the future trend of Bitcoin, the performance of the US stock market is an indispensable reference indicator. The cyclical characteristics of the US stock market are very significant. Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has experienced upward phases of 433 days, 490 days, and 791 days in the past three cycles, followed by approximately 30% corrections. It is worth noting that significant corrections are usually indicated by continued top divergence in the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI).

It is still uncertain whether the current cycle can last for a year, but considering that it has only risen for three months and there is no top divergence in the daily RSI, the S&P 500 may at most pull back to around 6000 points, and the possibility of a significant pullback is low.

From a macro perspective, the market may speculate on interest rate cut expectations in August, which reduces the likelihood of a significant drop in risk assets this month. For Bitcoin, its short-term support level may be around $106,000, which is the average cost line for short-term holders.

The future trend also depends on the upcoming tariff policy announcement. If the policy is favorable, Bitcoin is expected to close with a strong bullish candlestick and return above $117,000, thereby eliminating the risk of a downturn. Conversely, if the policy is unfavorable and the price falls below the daily line of $110,000 without a quick rebound, one should be cautious of the possibility of reaching the extreme support range of $105,000-107,000.

Overall, there is no need to panic excessively, but it is important to closely monitor the latest developments in tariff policies, as this will be a key factor influencing the short-term market direction.