Gold first breaks 3500 USD to set a record! Annual rise 43%, three times that of the stock index, with deficit inflation and weak employment boosting the rise.

According to Bloomberg, gold prices have historically broken through the $3,500 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date rise of 43%, outperforming major stock indices by three times. Gold prices have doubled compared to three years ago, and analysts point out that deteriorating government deficits, persistent inflation, and a weak labor market are the core driving forces behind this round of the gold bull run. This article will analyze the reasons for the surge in gold prices, related market dynamics (U.S. stocks, the dollar, tariffs), and future outlook.

( Gold hits record high, annual rise outperforms the stock market ) According to the latest data from Bloomberg, the spot price of gold has broken the $3500 per ounce barrier for the first time, setting a new historical high. This round of rise has pushed the annual increase to an astonishing 43%, more than three times the increase of most major stock indices. The gold investment market continues to strengthen, with gold prices cumulatively rising since 2022, and the current price has doubled with a 100% increase compared to three years ago. Market analysts generally believe that the worsening government fiscal deficit spending, ongoing inflationary pressures, and a labor market that is gradually showing signs of fatigue together constitute the macro backdrop for the rise of gold as a safe-haven asset.

( US stock futures slightly rebound, with significant fluctuations during the day ) After the U.S. stock market closed on Thursday, the index futures market showed a slight recovery trend. Previously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its second drop within three trading days. Specifically, Dow futures rose by 82 points (a rise of 0.2%), while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also increased by 0.2% respectively. During Thursday's trading session, the Dow ultimately fell by 224 points (a drop of 0.5%), the S&P 500 index slightly declined by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index went against the trend, rising by 0.4%. The Dow experienced significant volatility during the day, rising 305 points from the daily high before plummeting to a low with a drop of 394 points, resulting in a total intraday swing of 699 points.

( Trump's tariff policy is implemented, the dollar strengthens ) The "reciprocal" tariff policy implemented by former President Donald Trump officially took effect at midnight on Thursday. The highest tariff rates include 41% on Syria and 40% on Laos and Myanmar. Earlier, Trump confirmed that the 100% tariff imposed on imported semiconductor chips would be exempt for companies "building factories in the United States," a news that temporarily boosted the stock market. The dollar strengthened after a Bloomberg report, which stated that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is the leading contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman nominated by the Trump administration. Waller has met with members of Trump's team but has not yet met with the former president himself. Meanwhile, Trump announced the nomination of current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Moore to replace Adriana Kugler, who resigned last week, as a Federal Reserve Governor; Moore will serve until January next year to complete Kugler's remaining term. The dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.36, and the dollar to yen exchange rate increased 0.1% to 147.49. The pound to dollar exchange rate rose 0.41% to 1.341, as the number of members voting to keep interest rates unchanged at the Bank of England's policy meeting exceeded expectations (despite the central bank still cutting rates by 25 basis points). The euro to dollar fell 0.27% to 1.1627, having previously reached a high of 1.1698 in early trading on expectations of progress in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. Russian President Putin and Trump plan to meet in the coming days, after Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff has already held talks with Putin. The dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate rose 0.16% to 0.808, after Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter returned from Washington without reaching an agreement to avoid a 39% tariff on Swiss exports to the U.S.; Keller-Sutter stated that discussions with U.S. officials would continue.

( Cryptocurrency Market and Stock Index Weekly Performance ) In the cryptocurrency market, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 1.06%, trading at $116,348. By the end of this weekend, the S&P 500 index is expected to record a weekly rise of 1.6%, the Dow Jones is up 0.9% for the week, and the Nasdaq index is leading with a weekly rise of 2.9%.

Conclusion: Safe-haven assets shine as market volatility intensifies The historic moment of gold breaking through $3,500 highlights the strong appeal of gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset against the backdrop of global financial pressure, persistent inflation, and rising economic uncertainty. Its astonishing 43% rise this year far exceeds stock market returns, bringing substantial profits to precious metal investors. Meanwhile, the implementation of Trump's tariff policy, expectations of changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, and fluctuations in major currencies create a complex market landscape. Although U.S. stocks showed signs of rebound in the futures market at the end of this week, the day's severe volatility reminds investors that risks remain. The dollar strengthened under policy expectations, while Bitcoin also showed resilience and a slight rise in the crypto market. Looking ahead, whether gold prices can maintain their strength, whether U.S. stocks can absorb policy impacts to sustain weekly gains, the trajectory of the dollar, and the progress of geopolitical negotiations (Russia-Ukraine, U.S.-Switzerland) will all be key factors influencing global asset allocation. Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, central bank policy signals, and geopolitical dynamics to optimize their precious metal and diversified asset portfolios.