The cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market has always been a focal point for investors. Recently, industry experts have offered insights on the current stage of the market and its future trends.

CoinDesk Data analyst Diwan pointed out that, based on historical data, Bitcoin typically experiences significant price increases within 500 to 720 days after halving events. He noted that this pattern was observed in both the 2016 and 2020 cycles. Based on this, if the historical pattern repeats, there may be an accelerated increase from the third quarter of 2025 to the beginning of the first quarter of 2026. However, Diwan also observed that the price performance in the current cycle has been relatively subdued.

Bitwise Asset Management's Hougan holds a different view. He believes that the traditional four-year cycle may have ended, but to confirm this judgment, it is necessary to observe Bitcoin's performance in 2026. Hougan expects Bitcoin to perform well in 2026. He further explained that while market volatility still exists, the historical factors that caused the four-year cycle are weakening. At the same time, some new powerful forces are influencing the market along different timelines, which may surpass the traditional four-year cycle trend.

As the cryptocurrency market continues to develop, investors need to consider various influencing factors more comprehensively, rather than just relying on historical cycle patterns. New market dynamics, regulatory environments, technological advancements, and increased institutional participation may all change the price trend of Bitcoin. Therefore, when making investment decisions, it is necessary to consider multiple factors comprehensively and remain vigilant.