ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-Minute Strategy Analysis (Based on Data from August 9, 2025, 03:45)

Core logic: High volume at high positions leads to stagnation, relying on resistance levels for short positions.
Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:
Closed at 4048.93 (up 0.13%), with a fluctuation of 0.48% (4041.66-4061.09), and a long upper shadow confirming strong resistance at 4061.
Support: 4041.66 (intraday low), 4035 (psychological level); Resistance: 4061.09 (previous high), 4070 (trend line).
Volume-Price Divergence: 31,972 trading volume < 10-day average volume 88,202, price increase has not gained volume support.
Indicator Risk:
KDJ Death Cross Initially Appears: K value (75.28) crosses below D value (80.56), J value (64.72) accelerates downward, with a pullback probability >70%.
MACD momentum weakening: Red bar ( 4.09) continues to narrow, DIF ( 30.53) is flattening, bulls are losing strength.
RSI Overbought: RSI1(71.66) > 70 warning line, there is a need for correction.
Low-risk strategy: focus on high pressure level short positions.
Short Entry Point (Main Strategy):
The price rebounded to the 4058-4061 range (below the previous high) without significant volume (VOLUME<35,000).
Target: 4048 → 4040 (1x amplitude).
Stop Loss: 4065 (Break through previous high +0.1%).
Bullish emergency conditions:
A breakout with volume exceeding 4065 (VOLUME>50,000) and KDJ golden cross, chase long to 4077.
Or sharply drop to stabilize at 4035-4040 (15-minute long lower shadow), short-term long target 4055.
Stop loss: 4030 (break below key support level).
Timeliness and Risk Control
Operating window: 03:55-04:20 (low liquidity during Asian early trading hours, prone to quick fluctuations).
Holding time: ≤15 minutes, profit reaches 10 USD to take profit 80% (holiday risk).
Position Management: ≤2% of total funds, profit-loss ratio ≥4:1 (stop loss $4, take profit $16).
Strategic Advantage: Utilize long upper shadow + KDJ dead cross resonance for superior odds; entering at absolute resistance levels keeps risks manageable.
Risk Warning: Liquidity trap on Saturday, if the 4058 resistance is not reached before 04:20, firmly abandon the trade!
Action Summary:
① Preferred short position: short at 4060 with a light position, stop loss at 4065, target 4048→4040.
② Alternative Long Position: Break above 4065 to chase long to 4077, or stabilize at 4038 for a short long to 4055, with strict stop loss.
(Note: The closing price of 4048.93 has a 1 USD deviation from the chart marked 4049.93, subject to the actual market price) #Gate & WLFI USD1 积分计划# #特朗普允许401(k)投资加密货币# #Gate跟单训练营晒单赢$2,000#