Citigroup raises its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6,600 points, stating that tax cuts can offset the impact of tariffs.

On August 11, Citi Group strategists raised their target for the S&P 500 index, stating that tax cuts should offset the negative impact of tariffs on U.S. companies. The strategists, led by this team, increased the year-end target for the index from 6300 points to 6600 points, implying that the index will rise approximately 3% from last Friday's close.

This quarter's financial report performed better than expected, and there was hardly any negative impact from tariffs on performance, driving the stock market to new highs this month. According to data platforms, over 81% of the companies in the S&P 500 index exceeded expectations, which is the highest level in seven quarters. The Citigroup team stated that companies are not only "performing excellently," but most also maintain their expectations for performance in the second half of the year.

Therefore, the market consensus expectation for earnings per share is being raised. They have raised the earnings per share expectation for S&P 500 index component companies from the previous $261 to $272 for 2025, and from $295 to $308 for 2026. They stated that the higher profit forecasts would not have a significant impact on valuation assumptions. They expect the index to rise to 6900 points by mid-2026, an increase of about 8% from current levels.