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The recent pullback of Ethereum (ETH) was expected, but it still interrupted the market's momentum to break new highs, raising some investors' concerns. By deeply analyzing the options market data, we can gain insights into some key indicators for ETH's future trend.
From the changes in implied volatility (IV), there is an overall trend of recent and long-term declines, while a rise in the medium term. This pattern reflects a pullback sentiment in the short term, as well as a certain degree of cooling in long-term trading enthusiasm. However, the rise in IV for medium-term contracts indicates that major funds still maintain a bullish sentiment.
The Risk Reversal (RR) indicator shows a negative value and has significantly decreased compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the pricing of put Options is higher than that of call Options, and market sentiment is cautiously leaning in the short term.
In terms of Gamma exposure, positive Gamma is mainly concentrated in the $4400 to $4500 range, while negative Gamma energy is weakening and primarily focused around $4200. This data suggests that the pullback trend may slow down, and there could be downside resistance around $4400.
The changes in open interest (OI) also confirm this trend. The $4300 put options and $4650 call options became the positions with the largest changes yesterday, reflecting the psychological price level distribution of both bulls and bears.
Based on this data, options traders can consider the following strategies:
1. In the short term, a strategy of selling options in the range of 4200 to 4600 USD can be adopted.
2. For investors who are optimistic about the downward trend, they can choose appropriate price points for buying operations based on personal judgment. Although the win rate for such operations is relatively low, the potential returns can be high.
The market is always full of opportunities and challenges. Investors should remain rational, manage risks properly, and patiently wait for market opportunities to arise. In the long run, adhering to the value investment philosophy and focusing on the fundamental aspects of projects can often lead to more stable returns in the cryptocurrency market.