The speech to be delivered at the annual Jackson Hole conference by Fed Chairman Powell may have a significant impact on the movement of the dollar. However, economists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia indicate that Powell is unlikely to provide a clear policy direction.

Analysis indicates that Powell is likely to maintain a cautious stance, waiting for more economic data before making decisions. This strategy reflects the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic situation.

Currently, the market expects a roughly 70% chance of an interest rate cut in September. If Powell's speech suggests a leaning towards rate cuts, it could lead to further adjustments in market expectations and possibly trigger a moderate decline in the dollar.

However, this higher market expectation also poses a challenge for Powell. To change the market's perception, he needs to provide strong arguments.

Regardless, Powell's speech will provide important clues for investors and economists, helping to understand the Fed's future policy direction. Against the backdrop of numerous uncertainties in the global economy, every move made by the central bank becomes particularly significant.