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Will US Treasury Bonds have another big dump after Trump's election victory? Analysts say there are both long and short term factors, increasing uncertainty.
Trump's victory has recently promoted U.S. stocks and BTC to usher in a celebratory market, but the price of U.S. bonds is still relatively low in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut, what is the future trend of U.S. bonds? (Synopsis: BTC breaks through $76,400 to hit a new high!) Ethereum stands on 2800, Trump wins the election, and U.S. stocks soar) (Background supplement: U.S. small non-farm payrolls hit a new high in more than a year, U.S. debt Intrerest Rate soared, the Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate hikes in November? The U.S. election was settled on November 6, Taiwan time, and former President Trump won 295 electoral votes to defeat Democratic candidate He Jinli back to the White House, which also drove the U.S. stock and encryption currency markets to usher in a celebratory market. In the price of U.S. bonds, which is a traditional safe-haven asset, although the Federal Reserve (Fed) has started a new round of monetary easing cycle, the US 10-year Treasury yield Intrerest rate rose to 4.43% on the 6th against the background of Trump's announcement of victory and the expectation that inflation may return. (Currently edged down to 4.34%) US 10-year Treasury yields Intrerest Rate and price action. Source: Finance M Square Why didn't U.S. bonds rise against the background of interest rate cuts? Typically, a decline in the Intrerest Rate causes bond prices to rise. However, observe that since the Federal Reserve (Fed) launched the pace of interest rate cuts in September this year, the price of U.S. bonds has not risen backwards. Experts analyze possible causes: The U.S. Treasury continues to issue bonds to fill the government deficit (if Trump returns to the White House, the U.S. fiscal deficit may increase again) The Fed tried to shrink the balance sheet, eliminating a large amount of Treasury bond purchase demand, resulting in Recent economic data shows that the inflation effect is still glued On the other hand, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts from the Fed has made many people buy bonds as early as last year after the Fed suspended interest rate cuts, hoping to wait for the official announcement of interest rate cuts from the spread Arbitrage. However, under the psychology of expectations, the bond price was pushed to a high point, and the price did not rise backwards. Analyst: Trump's victory is both long and short for bonds In response to this situation, Cai Minghan, an experience analyst at Cathay Securities Consulting Office, also recently said that Trump's rise to power can be said to be both long and short for the bond market. First, Trump's policy direction will generally raise tariffs and boost the domestic economy in the United States, which will cause inflation problems, lead to a slowdown in interest rate cuts, and may even stop rate cuts, thereby affecting bond prices. On the other hand, Trump himself is willing to cut interest rates, and in Trump's first term, Fed Chairman Powell's response to inflation was to raise interest rates, but Trump held the opposite view, believing that interest rate cuts should be implemented. So overall, Trump's economic policies have added uncertainty to the direction of the bond market, which may have an impact on investors who want to Arbitrage from bond prices, but for investors who want to earn long-term bond interest earnings, the current U.S. Trerest Rate is worth buying. Related reports Trump relies on Non-fungible Token and Decentralized Finance "OEM License" to earn k $10,000, businessman soul his next step? Trump ignites the encryption market! Flipster continues the high popularity of Halloween activities, rewards users for the feast and starts again Trump won the "renminbi depreciation" hit the biggest dump in 4 years, wary of China's Central Bank intervening "Trump wins the election US debt and wants a big dump?" Analyst: Both long and short factors, deepening uncertainty" This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".