After checking the comments section, I noticed that some friends are worried that this Bull Market is already over. If I have time today, I'll talk about my own views on the current market.

This bull run started from the bottom of the market, which began in January 23rd, 23 years ago. If we take 15700 as the bottom, BTC has already increased by 6 times so far, experiencing two mid-term consolidations during which it broke through two highs, one at 73,000 and the other at 104,000.
Up to now, some old leeks believe that the Bull Market is over, because the new high has been achieved, and the shanzhai has also come out in two rounds of Bull Market (March-April and November-December this year), and the cycle rule of breaking the new high in four years has been broken. Currently, there is no incremental funds inside and outside the market, and there is no large-scale FOMO phenomenon. The heat of the cryptocurrency market has declined, so the last frenzy of the BTC Bull Market has come to a complete end, and it is recommended that everyone clear the market and leave.
The investment market never believes in tears. Everyone invests real money and silver in this market. Of course, different opinions and voices are allowed to appear, but in my personal opinion, their views seem reasonable, but when scrutinized, there are many doubts. Advising people to leave the market so intensively may conceal some unspeakable secrets.
Long ago, we discussed in the dynamics the three stages that trigger and maintain this round of the bull run: the first stage is the spot ETF approval, the second stage is the U.S. presidential election, and the third stage is the official start of the interest rate cut cycle. Based on the facts that have already occurred, this round of the bull run has added many favorable factors. These three stages can be adjusted as follows: in the first stage, the BTC spot ETF was smoothly approved, and BTC broke the previous high, reaching 73,000. In the second stage, Trump won by a large margin, and BTC set a new high of 104,000. In the third stage, Trump officially took office, combined with the Fed lowering interest rates to a neutral level, BTC will likely hit a new high around 2025.
So, currently we should be in the second phase. Chuan Jianguo will start his new and old ZF handover work next week. As everyone can see, every statement and personnel appointment made by this guy after his election will affect the market sentiment. I believe you also understand that our market is actually very small in scale, and what it needs most is the drive of sentiment and the establishment of consensus.
Before being elected, Chuan Jianguo said that he hopes the beautiful country will treat BTC as a reserve asset. At present, this old man still has quite a bit of courage. As an ordinary person, I don't consider things like strategic vision or international unprecedented major changes. Just based on these policies gradually being implemented, coupled with the whimsical new political figure Lao Ma, once the crypto bill is passed, it is predicted that more and more countries will follow suit. The value of BTC will become even more unstoppable. Yesterday, I went over the wall to watch the news, and Chuan Jianguo explicitly stated that during his tenure, he wants to at least push the price of BTC to 150,000. Based on the current price, it seems that this target is indeed getting closer and closer, and it is very likely that this round of Bull Market will be realized.
According to this logic, let's first analyze the technical data. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the current trend of BTC is quite healthy. After the dip to around 90,000 at the beginning of this month, the long positions with leverage have been cleared out. The short-term support at 93K-94K has also held up well, and it has now returned above 100,000, testing the support line at 99K-100K. BTC is likely to encounter some resistance at the 100,000 level in the short term. Once it breaks through the previous high here, BTC will usher in a new round of bullish market. Currently, the data shows that we are still below the slope line, indicating further upside potential. Therefore, the Bull Market is far from over. Perhaps before the end of the year, we will see BTC reaching 110,000-120,000. When Chairman Xi takes office next month, he will bring more policy stimulus, combined with the flow of funds in the interest rate cycle. The market consensus is to push for 150,000. This seemingly scripted trend prediction is still quite optimistic.
The short-term key supports for the king of altcoins, ETH, are 3.5K and 3.8K. It seems to have stabilized for now. In recent days, BlackRock and companies under the banner of Chuanguo have been increasing their positions in ETH. So it is certain that ETH will soon hit a new high of 5K-6K.
Looking at historical patterns again, although this round of the Bull Market did break new highs ahead of time, the difficulty for new participants to enter the market domestically is higher than in previous rounds. However, I still believe that the influence of BTC and the crypto market is gradually expanding. Especially after the entry of institutions and large companies in 2021, national-level entities are now following suit. More and more countries are joining the ranks of purchasing BTC, making it a national reserve asset.
This is not good news for ordinary people, but it is indeed a huge positive for the development of BTC. There is no denying that BTC is increasingly distant from ordinary people and is no longer a springboard for changing one's life and wealth. As a newcomer to the crypto world, it is undoubtedly a missed opportunity. However, driven by BTC, the cryptocurrency circle should become more prosperous. Despite many traps and scams, with the gradual improvement of compliance, it can also become an opportunity for many young people to change their destiny. Although the risk of playing altcoins is relatively high, compared with other investment targets, if you can maintain sufficient awareness, sufficient knowledge reserves, sufficient trading skills, and sufficient investment principles within the crypto circle, the probability of generating positive results and returns is relatively high.
In this bull run, I have actually seen some young people in real life earning more than 5 years' worth of salary, whether it's participating in primary market IPOs or playing meme stocks in the secondary market. The winners are those who are good at learning and brave enough to be at the forefront of crypto. As for whether they can hold onto this wealth and overcome the weaknesses of human nature, it's a matter of individual perspective.
Recharge a little faith again, everyone take a look at Figure 3, a comparison chart of the trend of several rounds of the Bull Market. At this stage, it's really not a time to be anxious, this Bull Market still has a long time to go, it will continue until the end of next year's rate hike cycle, probably until October or November. Of course, this process will definitely be magnificent, and no one can accurately predict when the peak will appear. The trends and timing of each currency's impact on the high point are also different. But I believe that at this moment, various 'zhuang' families have already planned several scripts for next year, and now they are waiting for BTC's performance.
I also found a very interesting picture. According to the data in Figure 4, our great China unexpectedly ranks second in the global BTC asset reserves, which is not much different from the value of the beautiful country. In addition, Bhutan and Ukraine also hold so much BTC. These are all information that we cannot know domestically, which is really surprising. It seems that everyone is quietly advancing a big flag. I don't understand, I don't understand. The great China is rich, but the people are poor. Even if it ranks first, what does it have to do with us ordinary folks? A few days ago, my friend was frozen when depositing money in the bank...
By the way, I'd like to remind you again. Bull markets are volatile. If you don't have a solid foundation, stay away from contracts. Even if you trade contracts, don't have too much short-selling mentality at high points. Follow the trend for better results. If you are fully invested at the moment, have confidence in yourself and be patient with holding coins. Don't be indecisive or chase after every opportunity. It's impossible for one person to make money on everything. Stay calm and wait for the right time. If you haven't opened a position yet, besides popular meme coins, the future layout should focus on AI and RWA concept coins. These two areas are currently the biggest narratives and should span the entire bull market. Pay more attention to coins with American capital nature. Under the premise of the American guys showing off, the returns should be fairly good.
The dynamic number of followers unknowingly reached more than 9,400, welcoming a bunch of new frens and losing a bunch of old ones. Once again, I want to remind everyone that I am not Japanese, and this name was purely chosen for fun at the time. If you understand Cantonese, you should know the meaning of this name. This Yoshikawa Taro has been writing intermittently for three years, gaining a lot. For me personally, the original intention was to create a tree hole, recording my bits and pieces and emotional journey in the coin-playing career. Due to limited ability, I am afraid that some of my views may mislead everyone, so in the future, some subjective opinions will be left in the subscription updates to post.
I don't need to rely on this for a living, but I do need to protect my privacy and thinking space. Thank you for your support and understanding, and thanks to my fren who subscribed to buy me coffee. Well, that's it for today. Have a great weekend and everything goes smoothly. ☕