Altseason 2025 Setup Strengthens as Bitcoin Dominance Breaks Key Channel

BTC dominance dropped to 59.72% after breaking a two year channel, down from a peak of 66.03% earlier this year.

Closing below the 50 week moving average at 60.92% signals mounting pressure, supported by a bearish weekly MACD crossover.

Analysts note the 50–55% zone as key, with further decline possibly driving dominance toward 44–42% historical support.

Bitcoin’s market dominance is showing clear signs of weakening, raising the possibility of a capital shift toward altcoins. The measure, known as BTC dominance (BTC.D), represents Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market capitalization

After maintaining an upward channel from mid 2022 to early 2025, BTC.D broke below the lower boundary of this pattern. The current level is at 59.72%, compared with a peak of 66.03% earlier this year. This technical breach, combined with additional weakening indicators, suggests altcoins may begin capturing a larger share of market flows.

Breakdown Below Long Term Channel

The rising channel that supported BTC dominance since 2023 no longer holds. The breakdown was confirmed when BTC.D fell under the support line, marked on technical charts

Market Cap BTC Dominance 1-week price chart, Source: Ash Crypto on X

After the drop, dominance briefly retested the broken level but failed to move higher, creating a rejection zone. This failed recovery has reinforced bearish pressure, adding weight to the argument for further downside momentum.

Moving Average and MACD Indicators

Technical indicators shows added weakness in BTC dominance. The 50 week moving average, previously acting as strong support, now is above current levels at 60.92%. BTC.D has closed two consecutive candles beneath this level, a key technical sign of pressure

At the same time, the weekly MACD shows a bearish crossover, with momentum strengthening toward the downside. Together, these conditions suggest Bitcoin’s market share may continue to shrink if trends remain intact.

Targets and Key Levels

The projected move shows a possible decline toward the 44 to 42% range, where historical support levels previously formed. Analysts view the 50 to 55% zone as especially important, acting as a confirmation area for further rotation into altcoins A drop into this range would indicate accelerated capital flow away from Bitcoin. However, a recovery above 61% and back into the former channel would invalidate the bearish setup. For now, momentum points lower, with the weekly chart displaying multiple factors aligning toward reduced Bitcoin dominance.

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